REPUBLIC OF PERILO

HAZARD ASSESSMENT 2007

Ministry of Extreme Situations Technical Memorandum 2007-1

This Hazard Assessment was prepared by a six person assessment working group of the Ministry of Extreme Situations to provide a basis for emergency planning by national, provincial, and local government agencies and voluntary organizations.  The Hazard Assessment is valid for 2007-2008.

METHOD

Historical records of disasters, climate forecasts, and current commercial and industrial activities were reviewed to identify hazards.  Each hazard identified was assessed by the assignment of a numerical hazard value computed by multiplying a profile value by the average of estimated values of the life hazard and structural hazard involved.  Profile values represented the potential magnitude, frequency of events, number of seasons in which events could occur, number of impact areas, probable duration, speed of onset, and breadth of the event.  Hazard values were used to divide events into high or low impact.  Historical and forecast data was used to assign either a high or low probability to each type of hazard.  Each hazard is depicted in a matrix as being:

• RED - high probability, high impact.

• YELLOW - low probability, high impact.

• GRAY - high probability, low impact.  

• GREEN - low probability, low impact.

RECOMMENDATION

The assessment working group recommends hazards be considered for inclusion in planning based on a (1) Red, (2) Yellow, (3) Gray, and (4) Green priority order.

IDENTIFIED HAZARDS

The assessment working group identified the following natural and human systems hazards as having sufficient probability of occurrence to require inclusion in the assessment.  The working group considered potential national security threats, but were unable to identify any significant threats during the period of this assessment.

Natural Disasters:

• Cold Fronts

• Drought

• Earthquakes

• Flooding

• Gale Force Winds

• Landslides

• Mudslides

• Sandstorms

• Volcanic Eruptions

• Wildland Fire

Human Systems Failures:

• Aircraft Crashes

• Liquefied Natural Gas Tanker Explosion

• Mine Disasters

• Oil Spills

• Pipeline Accidents or Attack

• Railway Accidents

NATURAL DISASTER ASSESSMENT

EARTHQUAKES (Red) - Perilo has an established history of tectonic disturbances, creating a high probability of earthquakes.  Given their destructive potential, earthquakes must be considered high impact events.

FLOODING (Red) - There is a high probability of flooding along Perilo's coastline and long rivers.  The impact is rated as high because of the number of people potentially displaced and the time-consuming nature of recovery.

LANDSLIDES/MUDSLIDES (Red) - Mud and landslides are high probability events given Perilo's seismic history and climate.  Impact is rated as high given the resulting dislocation of population and destruction of property.

VOLCANIC ERUPTION (Red) - Mount Moriah is an active volcano with a history of recent eruptions with widespread impacts.

WILDLAND FIRE (Red) - The Great Forest has suffered a historic wildfire, and other wooded land is subject to fire.  The impact is assessed as high because of the serious environmental degradation caused by wildland fire and the threat to residents.

DROUGHT (Yellow) - Perilo does not have an established history of frequent drought south of the Great Waste, and the probability of a serious drought is low.  However, if a drought occurred, it could inflict serious damage on Perilo's agriculture and on the water supplies available to the citizens.

SANDSTORM (Yellow) - One major sandstorm is recorded in Perilo's history, resulting in a low probability assessment.  However, that event caused severe economic and social disruption.

GALE FORCE WINDS (Gray) - The Great Waste, Northern Massif, and Coastal Plain all periodically are exposed to strong winds.  However, such winds in most cases do not cause widespread destruction.

COLD FRONTS (Gray) - Cold fronts pose a seasonal hazard with some adverse effects on agriculture and public health.  However, in most cases the population is adequately prepared for their impact.

HUMAN SYSTEMS FAILURE ASSESSMENT

OIL SPILLS (Red) - The regular transport of petroleum cargos in and out of Petroport increase the probability of a spill occurring.  Spills are high impact events because of the resulting environmental degradation, economic impacts, and the cost of cleanup and restoration.

LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS TANKER EXPLOSION (Yellow) - Although the safety record of liquefied natural gas tankers indicates that the probability of such an explosion is low, an explosion could generate mass casualties, destroy much of Petroport's oil infrastructure, and halt petroleum exports.

PIPELINE ACCIDENT OR ATTACK (Yellow) - The potential for a terrorist attack in Perilo is rated as low.  However, the petroleum industry, and in particular exposed pipelines, would be a likely target of an attack.  In addition, there is the potential for a pipeline rupture due to accident or sabotage.  Either scenario could result in explosion and fire, with the possibility of economic disruption.

AIRCRAFT CRASHES (Grey) - Perilo has a history of aircraft accidents, and it seems probable that such accidents will continue.  However, these accidents have been accompanied by relatively few fatalities compared to other disaster events, and usually do not cause widespread disruption.

MINING ACCIDENTS (Grey) - The presence of a variety of mines creates a high probability of mining accidents.  However, the impact is comparatively low because of the localized nature of these emergencies and the relatively small number of people involved.

RAILWAY ACCIDENTS (Green) - Perilo's railways have a good safety record, and this is expected to continue.  Railway accidents tend to be more survivable than other forms of transportation accidents, and given Perilo's transportation infrastructure, any disruption would be minimal.

[Developed by: Katelin Alexander, Kristen Bani, Emily Garrett, Devin Hernandez, Arielle Levy, Sarah Smith July 2007]